Are the Aggies Over-Valued?

Calendar November 10, 2009 | Posted by AggieNoise

I am invested in the Aggie basketball team. Not only monetarily but emotionally and socially, and as a fan that counts for a lot. If you disagree, read this article by Kyle Whelliston and let me know if you change your stance.

Investing time, money, reputation and love into something like a sports team may not be the best way to get a positive return on your investment. Yet, every season I become more invested in the Aggies and I’ve yet to be hit with a loss. 

Looking back at this time last season, I remember feeling like I was going out on a limb by predicting that the Aggies would be a very good team. Many friends, family members, and associates thought I was over-hyping them, citing the loss of veterans Jaycee Carroll, Kris Clark, and Steven DuCharme in their arguments. Yet the Aggies came through for me as they always do. Not only did they play to the level I had predicted, a 25 win season, they exceeded that expectation by winning 30 games.

As a new season draws closer I feel like I’m in a new position as a fan. Last season I liked my odds of a good return but this season I wonder if the Aggies might be over-valued. That’s not to say that I think they are over-rated, please don’t get me wrong here. What I mean to say is that everyone believes the Aggies will be good again this year, and why wouldn’t they when they return the bulk of their team? Some will argue that the loss of WAC Player of the Year, Gary Wilkinson, will be hard to overcome, but the general consensus is that the Aggies will be a strong team again. Proof of this is the fact that both the coaches and the media predict that the Aggies will win the regular season title for a third straight season. Everyone is bullish on the Aggies this year and it has driven the price up.

Last season it was a big deal to win as many games as we did, and this season people expect the same or even better. The expectations for this year’s team are high, maybe too high. I feel comfortable predicting 25 wins again, but it doesn’t feel the same. It isn’t a bold prediction. There are more people this year who share that sentiment, in fact, I’ve spoken to some who have higher expectations than that. Many feel that the team is a stronger one this year, with more depth and more experience.

So when I predict that we will win 25 games this season, the initial reaction is that it’s a step in the wrong direction. However, I would consider 25 wins this year to be a more considerable accomplishment than 25 wins would’ve been last year, and on par with the 30 wins we did accumulate. In my mind 25 wins would be an incredible feat, but the band wagoners and fair weather fans wouldn’t think so. They want 30 wins again.

The difference in our predictions comes from a different opinion of our competition. The Aggies have increased the difficulty of their out of conference (OOC) schedule by cutting out the fluff. Teams like Montana State – Northern are not to be found on the schedule this season like they were last year. Also, the WAC is a maturing league. The WAC lost very few players last year to graduation which means more experienced opponents come league play. On top of that, we start the season with three tough road games before we return to the safe confines of the Spectrum.

Another reason for my apprehension in this year’s team stems from a realization that this team has reached a plateau. There is a step they’ve yet to reach, and they’ve done everything they can at the level they’re on. This next step is to win in the post season and start building national respect. It is the level every team in the country aspires to. Few teams have made it with the limited resources that the Aggies have at their disposal. Reaching that next level would be truly remarkable, and would provide a huge return on my investment as a fan.

Betting on the Aggies to reach that next level is risky business. More factors must be considered into the equation. For example, the WAC has been a 1 bid league in recent years. That means you must win the WAC tournament to get into the dance. The WAC tournament happens to be on the home court of one of the better teams in the league, Nevada.

That’s not to say that the WAC couldn’t be a two or three bid league this year or in the coming years. To earn those extra bids the WAC, as a whole, will need to perform in the OOC portion of their schedule. A stronger conference ranking will justify additional bids into the NCAA tourney. Not only that, it will improve the seed that the top team gets. Part of the Aggies getting to the next step relies on the rest of the conference to step up.

Again, I believe the WAC to be a better conference this year. It will make the road more difficult for the Aggies, but it will set them up for a better opportunity to reach that next level. If you haven’t guessed it by now, I’m still buying the Aggies. More than that, I’m investing in the entire WAC.

My bold prediction this year is that the Aggies get an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament and win in the first round. Now all that’s left to do is hold on for the ride.

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